Working Paper

Abstract

Why have Americans lose faith in mainstream accounts of the economy? I propose mismatch-signaling theory: mainstream news signals elite beliefs, while online commentary signals public beliefs, causing elites to appear ``out of touch’’ when news signals diverge from audiences’ understanding of reality. I document a sustained mismatch between positive economic news and both negative sentiment and user commentary during the 2021–2025 vibecession in the United States: by 2022, consumer sentiment is better predicted by the tone of user comments than mainstream news. An original survey experiment shows that positive economic news causes economically dissatisfied readers to trust experts and media less, while juxtaposing positive news with negative user commentary causes trust declines even for readers without economic grievances. The results suggest a structural mechanism for institutional trust decline while highlighting the role of online commentary and news’ second-order effects in shaping political attitudes.